Portfolio Update – Week Ending 17th July, 2015

Summary

So it’s been a couple of weeks since my last update, and boy what a two weeks it has been! In all my time in the markets, the past two weeks (and last week in particular) has probably been the best I’ve seen as far as the speculative end of the market goes.

Many of my stocks have had stellar runs, and after a period of a couple of months with nothing much happening, my portfolio has seen some serious green action.

To top that off, my most significant holding, LWP, went into a trading halt on Thursday, regarding a joint venture announcement in India and I should see some significant gains there when it opens on Monday.

I’m not quite sure whats caused all this activity in the speculative end of the market – perhaps the Greek deal and stabilization of the Chinese markets has resulted in some “risk on” money flowing back into speculative stocks.

I’m loving it, but I’m not taking it for granted. I’m going to learn from past mistakes and make sure I have a solid set of trailing stops in place for any stocks that have had big runs. That way I’ll make sure I don’t lose a significant chunk of my profits should things turn sour.

I also added a new stock to my portfolio – Renascor Resources (RNU), which is currently drilling for IOCG style mineralisation in Australia. More on this later in the post.

Hope you’ve all been having as much “luck” as I have. Check out below for a more detailed update of some of the recent runners below:

AJX

AJX has had an interesting couple of weeks. Price broke above the short term downtrend on Thursday and continued upwards on Friday. We are nearing a test of of the short term resistance at 71.5c. Price action has been positive, although we haven’t seen much in the way of volume increases which makes me a little nearvous.

I only have my long term parcel at the moment, so I’ll be holding regardless of what happens, but we are approaching a moment of truth as far as short term implications go. A convincing break through 71.5c should see a re-test of the all time highs. Rising Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure and a cross above the 0% line would be bullish.

AJX candlestick Chart as at the week ending 17th July, 2015

AJX candlestick Chart as at the week ending 17th July, 2015

AZK

AZK had a little relief rally this week to test the declining trend line. The rally was short lived however and looks to be heading back to retest the recent lows just above 10 cents. I sold out another parcel this week during the rally to free up funds to purchase RNU – something that turned out to be a good decision.

I see AZK trending sideways/down until the Brain Chip acquisition is final and all funds have been raised. The fact the issue price is the 10 day VWAP prior to issue with a 10c floor suggests to me that price is likely to stay around that level until all is finalized.

I’ll be looking to see how price behaves directly following the completion of the issue.

AZK Chart 17 July 2015

CYY

What a couple of weeks for CYY, and a great example of how doing your homework, getting in early and waiting for things to play out can really pay dividends.

The price has risen dramatically over the past month and I’ve now made over 300% on my initial purchase price. We still have not had any material news flow, other than a drilling update stating they have intersected zones of sulfide mineralisation near surface. I’m still waiting on the geophysics update along with further drilling updates to add to the momentum.

The fact the stock has risen so dramatically prior to any news flow has me a little worried – the chart has a very parabolic look to it. That sort of price action can never be sustained. I’m wondering if there’s a little bit of “buy the rumor, sell the news” being set up here. There’s also a lower gap at 7.5c that may want to close eventually.

Although in saying that, whilst volume has been a lot higher than usual, we haven’t seen the monstrous increase in volume you often get with stocks that get pumped and dumped. I’m going to keep a close eye on things, and I currently have a trailing stop in place to protect me should we see some dumping going on in the coming weeks.

CYY daily candlestick chart

LWP

LWP went into a trading halt on Thursday regarding a share placement and joint venture announcement in India. A joint venture is the one piece of news I have been waiting for, and if I’m honest, I didn’t expect this announcement so soon.

The India factor was a little bit out of left field, but makes sense in hindsight. I’ll be watching very closely come Monday as I’m sure we will see a pretty decent rise in the share price. I’m a little bit nervous that things might get carried away, and I may be tempted to take a significant portion of profits off the table if things get too lofty.

I’m predicting we should see a push above 2c, and possibly a re-test of the recent highs at 2.5c.

LWP daily candlestick chart

RNU

My most recent acquisition is Renascor Resources. I decided to take a position based on identifying bullish divergence between price and accumulation indicators such as Twiggs Money Flow – a technique I identified in my most recent blog post.

RNU will be a good test of the method as the chart shows text book accumulation over the past couple of months. With resource speculative stocks starting to have a decent run, things look promising, although this is a very high risk play.

The company is drilling for IOCG style mineralisation analogous to other massive deposits in the area such as Olympic Dam and Prominent Hill. I’m a little nervous as we haven’t seen these kind of resource plays run yet – base metal prices are at 5 year+ lows and the CAPEX required to get these kind of deposits off the ground is massive.

However, I just couldn’t ignore the signs of accumulation and decided it was a good a punt as any going around at the moment. Drilling is currently under way and is expected to be completed by the end of the month.

I’m already up (on paper at least) 14%, however the stock is fairly illiquid and I doubt I could sell at that price if I wanted to. I’m waiting for a big volume event to bring price rises and liquidity to the stock. This may be the release of positive drill results or simply the accumulator pumping the stock prior to drill results.

I’m hoping to see a test of the long term resistance at ~9 cents – three and a half bags from current levels. That may be a slightly ambitious target, but time will tell. A first up target of 3.5 – 4 cents would be nice.

RNU

That’s all from me this week. Hope you all have had as good of a week as myself – it’s a good time to be in the stock market. Just make sure you’re vigilant and never be afraid to take profits off the table – these market conditions don’t last forever.

Happy investing,

The Nude Investor

End of Week Portfolio Summary for 17th July, 2015

Stock Average Buy In ($) Weekly Close ($) Last Reports Close ($) Change Since Last Report Overall Change (%)
AJX 0.473 0.685 0.670 +2% +45%
AQD 0.022 0.024 0.025 -4% +8%
AZK 0.089 0.135 0.130 -4% +52%
CL8O 0.011 0.012 0.010 +20% +8%
CYY 0.025 0.099 0.056 +77% +302%
CZN 0.009 0.009 0.006 +50% 0%
DUO 0.025 0.009 0.005 +80% -64%
LWP 0.006 0.013 0.011 +18% +117%
RNU 0.021 0.024 +14%
RVR 0.186 0.145 0.165 -12% -22%