Portfolio Update – Week Ending 5th June, 2015
Overall, not the best week on the portfolio. I saw a rebound in one of my bigger holdings – AJX, and I am now firmly back in profit, but most of my more speculative stocks saw small to moderate falls throughout the week. The fact the Aussie share market had a torrid week overall, declining on all 5 days, didn’t help at all and the All Ords index is nearing correction territory.
The biggest news is that I closed my position in two of my smaller holdings – One was the short term trade in DCC in which my sale was triggered by my stop loss, locking in a decent loss. I also had a go at a small short term trade in MNC which I also closed out for a small loss. Overall, I learned a valuable lesson – take any profit you can when trading in a declining market – I had multiple opportunity to sell for a small profit in MNC and gave up the opportunity hoping for bigger gains. Lesson learnt.
AJX was the better performer for me this week rising significantly from its recent lows. Friday saw a reasonably bullish close, showing signs of “no supply” as seen by the bullish close and lack of volume. It’s too early to tell if a recovery is in play but things are looking better than last week. We have seen a breakout above the short term declining trend channel and have now seen a successful back test of the channel. The only thing that concerns me is the gap from Mondays open. I’m not a huge believer in gap theory but for some odd reason they do have a tendancy to close. One to keep an eye on anyway.
LWP (formerly CKK)
After a stunning break out week last week, LWP had a significant retrace this week. In hindsight, I probably should have locked in more profits in the 2c+ range, however I still have a strong fundamental belief in the company and what its doing. I thought we would see a bounce around the 1.5c mark, however that hasn’t happened and we are back to testing the pre-breakout high of 1.1c. In the end, if the retrace is over, this may be a good thing in the long run if it can build a nice base before making moves off this level. Stocks that retrace to test former resistance often fair very well when the next move is made.
Should we see an announcement regarding test results from the newly up and running pilot plant and/or the announcement of a JV partner, this should take off again. Currently holding for the medium to long term.
AZK tried to break out at the end of last week but returned back to a consolidation pattern, which I’m ok about. As mentioned for LWP, whenever a stock builds a nice base it makes the next move all that more powerful. It now clearly seems like any prices below 20c are being firmly rejected. Volume is anemic and it’s simply “wait and see” for the time being. If anyone out there isn’t in the stock but looking to get in, now seems like a very low risk entry point with a stop at say 18.5c.
Should completion of milestone 2 (development and testing of a physical brain chip) be announced, I strongly believe we will see a significant re-rate.
CL8 saw a slight rebound late in the week. Volume didn’t exactly compliment the rise and a bearish close on Friday warns that further pain may be in store next week. I’ve been a little disappointed with the lack of news flow from management on this one – we haven’t heard much at all for a long while. I’m considering selling this one should we see another rise in the coming few months.
In the long run, I’m hoping that long term the company can move into new peer to peer opportunities in the future, particularly the P2P lending space. I’ve heard whispers that we may hear from management in the next few weeks regarding the strategic direction of the company. If anything lending related was mentioned I would definitely look to stay in the game and possibly even add to my holding.
CYY had a slow week – no real action to report. I’m hoping the price drops back into the mid teens so that I can add a little more to my position. Sampling and geophysical exploration began this month with drilling to start next month. I’m expecting a solid run of news over the next 3 to 4 months which should hopefully have a big impact on the share price.
Same as last week – still well and truly retaining its dog status. Will stay the same until it sorts its captial structure out and acquires a decent project. Only continuing to hold because I screwed up and didn’t have a stop in place and now it’s not worth selling.
Slow week – closed the same as last week. Nothing to report, next to no volume. Waiting on further news flow.
Extremely quiet week. Next to no volume and closed the same as last week. Waiting on drilling results.
Slow week – closed the same as last week. Nothing to report, next to no volume. Waiting on further pump testing results.
RVR had a pretty slow week as well. Decreased slightly with mostly low volume days. However I sense there is a lot of buying going on as highlighted by the rapidly rising twiggs money flow and the long tails on all of the candles with the stock closing at or near its highs almost every day. It appears like someone is accumulating stock and I am expecting nothing but positive things from RVR this year. I continue to hold medium to long term with confidence.
New weekly addition – DCC
I was finally stopped out of my DCC trade this week for a small to moderate loss. The chart below shows an update from last week where price broke out of the short term trend channel and continued to decline. I gave the trade a generous stop loss – in high sight I probably should have placed it higher and closer to the bottom of the trend channel. All in all though the stop loss system I had in place worked and kept me from suffering further losses – the share price is now significantly below my stop loss price.
End of Week Portfolio Summary 05/06/15
|Stock||Average Buy In ($)||Weekly Close ($)||Last Weeks Close ($)||Weekly Change||Overall Change (%)|
|DCC||0.271||CLOSED POSITION at $0.200, total loss = 26%|